The big story in the week ahead is expected to be the IPO of SpaceX, and Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, says this deal is ugly right from the jump, putting the new stock in The Danger Zone before it even goes public. Guske notes that SpaceX has no earnings , a negative economic book value, a share structure that leaves virtually all control with Elon Musk, and that nearly all money raised in the launch will go to pay off prior debts. When the IPO goes through, however, there will be "this massive valuation on a company that, right now, is unprofitable," and that will have to deliver huge amounts of future growth to justify the expected market price.
Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses SpaceX too, noting it is part of a broader IPO wave that is less about great investment opportunities and more about venture capitalists cashing out while the getting is good. In "The Week That Is," Marolia also looks at Americans' growing credit-card debt load which — unlike the soft, emotional data of consumer sentiment — shows how consumers are struggling with inflation and explains how that struggle could be the thing that trips up the economy if consumers wake up and cut spending.
In The Big Interview, Dominic Ceci, chief investment officer at Johnson Financial Group says that the economic growth story has "captured the hearts and minds" of investors, allowing them to keep climbing the wall of worry to get the stock market back to record highs. He says that growth picture could be changing, as artificial intelligence gets to a "prove it" phase, inflation stays higher for longer, and the impacts of War in Iran move from the potential problem of the fighting's first few days to the undeniable impacts seen only as the conflict moves past the 90-day mark.