ASML's Guidance Is Up. So Is the Risk.

ASML just raised guidance at both ends — new range is €36 to €40 billion for 2026, implying around 17% growth year over year. That's a strong result.

But the data underneath it tells a more complicated story.In this episode, we break down what ASML's Q1 2026 earnings mean for the broader wafer fab equipment cycle, why ASML is expected to slightly underperform the 300mm equipment market this year, and what the semi.org outlook through 2028 is quietly flagging about the next mid-cycle slowdown.

We also run a reverse DCF on ASML at current prices — and walk through why the implied earnings growth rate needed to justify today's stock price should give investors pause.

This is not a sell call. It's a reality check on expectations in a market that has gone hardware-crazy and forgotten that cycles — including this one — don't last forever.

Topics covered:- ASML Q1 2026 earnings and raised guidance- Semi.org wafer fab equipment outlook through 2028- 300mm fab market: $133B, 18% growth- Advanced packaging and where ASML fits in- Reverse DCF walkthrough: the 43% EPS growth problem- Mid-cycle slowdown probability and what to watch

Disclosure: Nick and Kasey hold ASML. Content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.

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