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The war against Iran launched by the U.S. and Israel on February 28 has not gone according to plan. What was initially portrayed as a quick regime change action that would destroy the Islamic Republic and spark a domestic uprising soon morphed into a war of attrition in which Iran stunned the U.S., Israel, and international observers. Six weeks after the opening strikes that assassinated much of Iran’s leadership, it is President Donald Trump who appears desperate to find an exit. The Iran war is now at a definitive crossroads and the coming days will prove decisive.
While the U.S. and Israel have pounded Iran with massive airstrikes, killing more than 3,300 people, Tehran has inflicted unprecedented damage on U.S. military infrastructure across the Persian Gulf. It forced the evacuation of more than a dozen military bases and other facilities and repeatedly hit Israel with ballistic missile and drone strikes, despite daily claims by the U.S. and Israel that its weapons capacity had been all but wiped out. Iran’s consolidation of control over the strategically-vital Strait of Hormuz has proven a potent symbol of its ability to impact not only the global economy, but to accentuate the political and strategic crisis Trump faces.
The two-week ceasefire agreed between the U.S. and Iran on April 7 is set to expire on Wednesday. Tehran was deeply skeptical of accepting a temporary agreement with the U.S. Twice in one year, the U.S. and Israel launched massive military attacks against Iran in the middle of supposed negotiations. Iranian officials and analysts have consistently said they believe that scenario is likely to be repeated. But Iran ultimately moved forward with the Islamabad talks, after concluding that it had a stronger negotiating position than at any point since the 2015 nuclear agreement was voided in 2018 by Trump during his first term as president.
In a wide-ranging interview, Drop Site’s Jeremy Scahill spoke with Iranian analyst Dr. Hassan Ahmadian, Associate Professor of Middle East Studies at Tehran University. Since the war began, Ahmadian has become one of the most prominent Iranian commentators in the Islamic world because of his viral appearances on Al Jazeera Arabic. He is frequently placed on debate shows where he battles as many as seven other guests and hosts. Scahill and Ahmadian talk about what Iran would be willing to accept as part of a deal with the U.S., how it could ensure that the U.S. and Israel do not renege on an agreement and restart the war, and how Iran will approach the issue of its enriched uranium stockpiles.
“Iranians do not trust the Trump administration at all. But what they’re banking on is the fact that they stood against an aggression and forced them out of this aggression, short of achieving any of their goals,” Ahmadian said. “The Iranians see that they can balance asymmetrically the power of the United States and can push it back.”
Ahmadian and Scahill discuss the internal decision-making process in Iran, debates among the political, religious and military echelons, and the role of Parliament Speaker Mohammed Baghar-Ghalibaf, Tehran’s lead negotiator in the current talks with the U.S. Ahmadian also offers a comprehensive overview of Iranian strategy and its perspective on reestablishing deterrence and regional balance in the aftermath of the U.S.-Israeli wars.
“Iran wanted to push back in a way that forces its foes to think twice and thrice before attacking Iran once more. And I think they did that. The United States will think more than once before attacking Iran,” Ahmadian said. “Name another system whose top echelon are assassinated and is capable of continuing and also waging a retaliatory war effort against two big foes. I don’t see any historical parallel to this—that speaks volumes to the institutional, institutionalized level of the [Iranian] system.”