In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Dario Perkins to examine why the global macro consensus may be fundamentally misreading the current cycle. The conversation moves from US fiscal stimulus and Federal Reserve credibility to the limits of the K-shaped economy narrative. Perkins challenges prevailing assumptions around AI-driven productivity, labor market weakness, and falling inflation, arguing that policy choices are pushing economies toward overheating rather than stagnation. The discussion extends to bond markets, term premia, Japan’s normalization, Europe’s fiscal pivot, and China’s rebalancing dilemma. What emerges is a picture of renewed growth, rising risks, and a cycle whose ending is now becoming visible.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on LinkedIn.
Follow Dario on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Opening remarks and context
02:25 - Global uncertainty and growth expectations
05:00 - The K-shaped economy under scrutiny
08:12 - Fiscal stimulus, tariffs, and timing effects
11:07 - Fed independence and political pressure
17:06 - The race to appoint the next Fed chair
26:35 - Productivity data and the AI narrative
35:51 - Labor market stall speed debate
39:56 - Bond markets, term premia, and inflation risk
46:03 - Japan’s normalization and demographic...