Can The Holiday Consumer Push The Market...

In this Thanksgiving-week episode of Money Moves, Matty and Ryan break down the short trading week, early retail numbers, and the critical role the holiday consumer will play in determining whether the market surges to new all-time highs—or whether we’ve already topped out.

They dive into the early indicators: in-store bodies, doorbuster traffic, Black Friday predictions, technical market strength, and the shifting probability of a December rate cut. Ryan explains why current technicals are flashing a “strong buy,” why oscillators are turning bullish, and how recent market dips gave disciplined investors an opportunity to position ahead of a potential Santa Claus rally.

The conversation expands into consumer spending strength, housing affordability, rising delinquencies, the impact of mortgage rates, food inflation, credit card debt, and broader macro risks that could either support or threaten a market breakout. Matty and Ryan close with their expectations for Black Friday/Cyber Monday data—and how those numbers could dictate market momentum into 2026.

If you're trying to understand where the market goes next, this episode offers a grounded, data-driven roadmap heading into the biggest shopping week of the year.

Topics Covered:

• Thanksgiving week overview and expectations for a short trading week
• Early holiday retail indicators: in-store traffic, doorbusters, and initial consumer sentiment
• Technical analysis showing bullish signals: oscillators, moving averages, and momentum strength
• Market timing vs. long-term buying strategy during dips
• Rate-cut probability surging ahead of the December FOMC meeting
• Labor market softening and the impact on consumer spending behavior
• Deep dive into housing affordability and rising median homebuyer age
• Delinquencies increasing: credit cards, auto loans, and broader consumer strain
• Inflation pressures: food, auto, and insurance costs holding steady at elevated levels
• Mortgage rates, supply issues, and debates around 30-year vs. 50-year mortgages
• Speculation surrounding Trump’s potential Fed chair appointment and aggressive rate-cut theories
• AI chip tensions between NVIDIA and Google affecting tech-sector sentiment
• The critical role of Black Friday and Cyber Monday data for year-end market trajectory
• Predictions for a potential Santa Claus rally depending on holiday consumer strength

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