Rob Carver returns for a conversation that quietly questions the foundations. Is trend following an edge - or just a reward for holding discomfort others can’t? From the role of skew in shaping outcomes to the blind spots in most robustness frameworks, Rob and Niels takes you through the mechanics with uncommon clarity. Listener questions open up the deeper layers: when volatility targeting helps, when it hurts, and why Sharpe Ratios can mislead. They end with a shift that may matter more than it seems: CalPERS moving to a Total Portfolio Approach. Not just a new framework - potentially a new lane for CTAs.
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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
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Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro and welcome to the Systematic Investor Series
00:23 - Catching up with Rob and a cold, sunny UK
01:35 - Is trend following an edge or a risk premium?
03:38 - Overcomplicating edges and the Cliff Asness perspective
04:30 - Renaissance’s bad month and how even legends struggle
09:25 - Managed futures ETFs, performance narratives, and media framing
11:22 - AI, Nvidia and what an “AI bubble” might mean for trends
13:10 - Trend barometer, current positioning and where returns come from
18:35 - George’s question: robustness testing, overfitting and multiple testing
25:45 - How often to re-fit models and when to leave parameters alone
27:44 - Frederik’s question: intraday versus end of day for medium term...