Chuck Todd breaks down why Donald Trump’s sudden push for a Ukraine “peace deal” may be more about political retreat than diplomacy, especially as Europe now shoulders most of the war’s cost—leaving Trump with diminished leverage abroad and a base deeply skeptical of foreign interventions. Chuck digs into new polling that shows a steady and significant shift toward Democrats, with a widening generic ballot advantage and Trump’s approval continuing to fall, suggesting the midterms—and even the Senate—are unexpectedly in play. He explores how Trump’s attempts to manipulate the economy could backfire, how a potential “AI bubble” could further weaken him, and why GOP divisions are poised to intensify. Plus, an update on the California governor’s race, where a field of lackluster Democratic contenders has allowed Republicans to overperform, raising questions about whether bigger names—or Rick Caruso—will jump into a race long dominated by the shadows of Jerry Brown and Gavin Newsom.
Then, Chuck is joined by Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist Anne Applebaum for a sweeping, unsparing look at the state of the Russia–Ukraine war and the global democratic landscape it threatens. Applebaum breaks down whether a ceasefire is even plausible this year, given Vladimir Putin’s unwavering war aims, the murky negotiators involved in back-channel talks, and Trump’s unusually warm posture toward the Kremlin. She details why Ukrainians refuse to accept a “kick the can” peace deal, how corruption scandals are playing out domestically, and the way drones, energy strikes, and a collapsing Russian economy are reshaping the battlefield. From mysterious elite deaths to China’s strategic support, Applebaum outlines the brittle yet dangerous architecture sustaining Putin’s regime.
The conversation widens into a broader examination of the worldwide struggle between democracy and autocracy—from Trump’s Venezuela maneuverings to Saudi Arabia’s complicated role, from Silicon Valley’s unchecked power to Europe’s scramble to recalibrate its alliances. Applebaum warns that the U.S. walking away from Ukraine would reverberate far beyond Eastern Europe, and she explains why the speed and scale of Trump’s attacks on democratic norms have raised historic alarm. It’s a candid, far-reaching assessment of the forces shaping global stability—and the stakes ahead.
Finally, Chuck answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.
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Timeline:
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)
00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction
05:00 Trump’s “peace deal” may be his attempt to walk away from Ukraine
06:00 Europe is funding bulk of the war, Trump has less leverage
07:15 Trump’s plan to make Europe foot bill is working, but diminishes influence
09:15 If Trump gave rationale for removing Maduro, he’d have more credibility
11:00 Trump’s base doesn’t want foreign military interventions
12:30 Polling shows Democrats with large generic ballot advantage
15:30 Every poll has moved in the Democrats direction, and lower Trump approval
17:30 Donald Trump will try to pull levers to fix economy, could make it worse
19:00 Democrats have a huge advantage going into the midterms
19:45 Democrats need a 6-7 point generic advantage to win house
20:15 If current polling holds, the senate is in play
23:00 Applying election and polling trends nationwide, Dems could blowout midterms
24:30 Democrats unpopularity turned out to be meaningless in 2025 elections
26:00 Bad is going to get worse for Trump, GOP will be further divided
27:45 “AI Bubble” could sink Trump if it pops
29:00 Update on the California governor’s race
29:45 Democratic voters crave optimism, Tom Steyer doesn’t offer it
31:30 Candidates for CA governor feel like their all “Tier 2” candidates
34:00 Jerry Brown & Gavin Newsom have hovered over CA politics for decades
36:00 There are only two prominent Republican candidates in CA
37:00 Dem candidates are so weak, GOP candidates performing well
38:00 Will Rick Caruso run for mayor of LA or governor of CA?
40:30 There should be some bigger names jumping into the race
46:00 Anne Applebaum joins the Chuck ToddCast
47:45 Will we get a ceasefire this year between Russia & Ukraine?
48:15 Putin has never said he’ll give up original war aims
49:30 Serious concerns about negotiators involved in secret peace deal
50:15 Talks have mostly concerned trade deals between U.S. & Russia
51:00 Putin knows he’ll never have a more supportive U.S. president
52:15 Putin holds a special status with Trump
53:00 Ukraine is more reliant on Europe than U.S. for the war
53:45 Is the corruption scandal involving ministers imperiling Zelensky?
54:45 Zelensky hasn’t gotten in the way of corruption investigation
56:15 Ukrainians have no interest in cease fire to kick can down road
57:30 Ukrainians won’t be strongarmed into accepting a bad deal
58:15 Drones have completely changed complexion of the war
01:00:00 Russians are targeting civilians, Ukraine hitting energy targets
01:00:45 Russians don’t care about human losses, just financial losses
01:02:00 At what point will a bad economy put pressure on Putin?
01:02:45 Russian elite mysteriously committing suicide or dying
01:03:30 Prigozhin was the only person who could challenge Putin
01:05:00 The Russian regime seems inevitable until the day it falls
01:06:00 Putin is completely dependent on China
01:06:45 China will stick with Russia & support war to weaken U.S.
01:07:45 Putin still has allies in Iran & North Korea
01:08:15 What does Russia think they’re accomplishing with Poland incursions?
01:09:30 Russia trying to create divisions between Ukraine and Europeans
01:10:15 Russia’s actions are only stiffening the European’s spine
01:11:00 Status of U.S. aid into Ukraine
01:12:15 What does it look like if the U.S. walks away from Ukraine?
01:13:30 Russia is still demanding land they haven’t conquered
01:15:15 Trump wants the optics of a big peace deal where “he wins”
01:16:30 Trump’s actions with Venezuela look like Putin’s in Ukraine
01:18:45 Trump’s Venezuela actions undermining international system
01:19:45 Is Saudi Arabia a dictatorship and what is our relationship with them?
01:20:30 The Saudi’s primary interest isn’t undermining the U.S. unlike Russia
01:22:00 Trump’s family has enormous conflicts of interest with the Saudis
01:23:15 Why security guarantees for Qatar but not Saudi Arabia?
01:25:15 Trump’s deals in the Gulf seem to benefit him more than U.S.
01:26:00 Is democracy losing the worldwide fight against autocracy?
01:28:00 Due to state of U.S. it feels like democratic argument is losing
01:29:30 Role of silicon valley in fight between democracy & autocracy
01:30:45 Tech has power to shape opinions and public perception
01:33:00 Government has never outsourced major tech shift to private sector
01:34:00 How dangerous is the concentration of corporate power in America?
01:35:00 The EU is the only entity that could regulate big tech
01:36:00 Trump’s isolation has been a wake up call to Europe, can it hold?
01:38:00 Europe was so sure of alliance with U.S. they let things slide
01:39:00 Level of concern with state of American democracy is very high
01:40:00 The speed of Trump’s attacks on democracy is unprecedented
01:42:00 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with Anne Applebaum
01:42:15 Ask Chuck
01:42:45 Any book recommendations on the fall of the Ottoman Empire?
01:46:45 Thoughts on voter approval for constitutional amendments?
01:52:00 Way to reform the primary system to produce moderates?
01:56:30 Dem voters still motivated to vote despite lower approval of party
02:04:00 College football preview
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