Last week, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said, “Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes”. Altman compared the widespread interest over Artificial Intelligence today, to the “tech bubble” of the late 1990s. But, the Magnificent 7 companies’ valuations today are less than half what the top five technology companies were, at the peak of the dot-com bubble.
With over 90% of S&P 500 index companies having already reported their Q2 results, earnings growth is settling in at 12.0%, and the consensus forecast of 4.8% for Q3 is starting to look too low. Higher-than-expected July producer prices and nominal retail sales may both be signalling that the full impact of tariffs is yet to come. We expect producers to pass on the increased cost to consumers in the months ahead.