Mixed Market Movements and Economic Indicators on August 7
In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the mixed movements in the stock market on August 7, with the DOW down 224 points, S&P flat, and Nasdaq down slightly. The 10-year yield rose by two basis points to 4.24%. Brian reviews initial jobless claims, noting a higher than expected number and a rise in continuing claims, suggesting a softening labor market. Despite this, the likelihood of a recession remains low at less than 20%, down from 60% in April, partially due to a de-escalation of U.S.-China tariffs. Additionally, Brian discusses the historical context of market performance in September and October, advising against short-term market timing. He underscores the importance of focusing on long-term returns, dividend growth, and compounding benefits.
00:00 Market Overview: A Mixed Day
00:41 Economic Indicators: Jobless Claims and Productivity
01:53 Recession Odds and Tariffs Impact
05:09 Historical Market Trends: September and October
07:08 Final Thoughts and Upcoming Events
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com