In this week's episode, we cover a wide range of reports that touch on inflation, consumer spending, manufacturing activity, and what might come out of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on July 30. We also analyze the moves in both the bond markets and equities caused by the rumors of President Trump’s desire to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Lastly, we discuss the potential for antitrust activity among the most influential companies in the technology sector, colloquially known as the Magnificent 7.
Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Rajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed Income
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities
00:57 – The Consumer Price Index – a measure of inflation – increased in both overall and core (which excludes food and energy prices) figures in June, both month over month and year over year. The next release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) – another measure of inflation – is expected on July 31.
02:03 – The U.S. Census Bureau released its monthly report on advance monthly retail sales, which was positive for the economy and showed an 0.6% increase in consumer spending for June.
02:46 – The Federal Reserve’s latest Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report showed a 0.3% uptick in manufacturing in June, which was a very welcome sign because April and May figures were relatively flat, and March was negative.
03:27 – The Fed released its Beige Book report, which comes out in advance of the upcoming FOMC meeting. Overall, it shows cautiously positive signs across the twelve districts, with five reporting slight or modest gains, five with flat activity, and modest declines for the remaining two.
04:12 – We note three themes to pay attention to over the next few weeks in addition to the upcoming FOMC meeting: President Trump’s ongoing or extended pause on tariffs, the PCE inflation report, and updated figures on the labor market.
05:08 – Because the CPI data was higher than expected, market expectations of the Fed issuing a July rate cut are down to under 5%, while expectations of a September rate cut are around 60%. Still, a growing contingency is betting on the next rates cuts coming as late as the fourth quarter of this year or not at all until 2026.
06:27 – The bond market reacts to this week’s economic news with front-end yields, which are more sensitive to Fed policy, moving lower more rapidly than longer-ended yields, which are more sensitive to the economy and inflation.
07:56 – The Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (“the MOVE Index”,) – which tracks volatility in the bond market – spiked on reports that Trump was thinking of removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, but quickly came back down and remains stable, signaling a resilient bond market.
09:56 – An overall analysis of the economy and markets considering this week’s rumors of Powell’s potential ouster, the more likely potential of his serving out his full term, and conversations of who might come next. We look to historical precedent during Richard Nixon’s presidency for what might happen in the future.
13:29 – The equities market continues to see all-time highs and will likely remain high in August before anticipated cooling beginning in September. Technology sector stocks lead the market rally, with some lagging in healthcare and consumer staples.
17:36 – Stocks of the Magnificent 7 are buoying the markets partly because of their high trading volume and concentration. More singularly focused companies like Microsoft and NVIDIA seem immune from government interference, but more-diversified companies like Meta and Alphabet might be more susceptible to anti-trust efforts.
20:19 – The overall economic outlook is positive for now. Recession fears and tariff-related volatility are coming down, but can come back at any moment. The implications for your portfolio are to balance risk and remain diversified to offset potential future fluctuations.
Additional Resources
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Key Questions | Key Private Bank
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