logo
episode-header-image
Jun 9
23m 7s

Sell in May and Go Away to Your Dismay?

Key Wealth Institute
About this episode

In this week's episode we unpack three reports about the labor market; the mixed results show an uptick in new job openings amid increasing initial weekly unemployment claims, though the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.2%. We also discuss the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report, which shows elevated levels of consumer and commercial uncertainty ahead of the June 18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. As always, we analyze how this news is affecting the equity and fixed income markets.

 
Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Rajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed Income
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

 

02:07 – The Fed’s Beige Book shows mixed growth across districts, and an increasing degree of policy and economic uncertainty.

02:59 – We introduce two reports about jobs and payrolls from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and another report from the Department of Labor on unemployment.

06:20 – Putting the news of the week in context of the overall uncertainty caused by the question of tariffs and trade policy.

07:24 – Equities appear to be on an upward trajectory calling the old “Sell in May and go away” adage into question.

10:05 – The Magnificent 7 companies’ stocks take diverging paths resulting from tariffs or noise from the Beltway.

12:10 – The bond market reacts to the nonfarm payroll news, while traders ease their expectations of future rate cuts.

13:27 – Treasury yields moved higher, though buyers remain standoffish amid the continuing debate on the U.S. fiscal deficit and tax policy.

15:27 – Credit spreads show an optimistic outlook, especially on corporate issuances.

16:31 – In a reversal of the historic norm, global central banks made moves to cut rates rather than following the U.S. Fed’s example.

Additional Resources

Join our June 11 National Call

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletter

Weekly Investment Brief
Follow us on LinkedIn

Up next
Jun 30
Fed Still to Wait and See after updates to GDP and PCE
In this episode, our experts opine on the economy, considering three key indicators making a splash this week: unemployment claims are down, but so was the first quarter estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while inflation stayed stickier than hoped for in May. Meanwhile, bo ... Show More
23m 4s
Jun 23
Summer of Uncertainty: the June FOMC meeting and the One Big Beautiful Bill
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week to report on dampened economic projections, forecast two potential rate cuts in the remainder of the year, and reaffirm the wait-and-see approach that has been a hallmark of Fed policy thus far in 2025. Our experts analyze wh ... Show More
27m 34s
Jun 16
Private Credit: Good Vibrations for Investors?
In this week's episode, Ather Bajwa, Managing Director of Multi-Strategy Research, joins us to deliver a masterclass in private credit – what it is, why it’s important, and what to consider before investing. We also unpack new surveys and reports across a variety of topics includ ... Show More
24m 4s
Recommended Episodes
Jul 2024
The Trading Floor: Nasdaq Posts Worst Day Since 2022 As Trump Rattles Markets
Midweek turmoil hit global chip stocks following reports of tighter US export restrictions and rising geopolitical tensions, spurred by remarks from former President Donald Trump. We also unpack comments from the former US President on his thoughts on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome ... Show More
29m 6s
Sep 2024
The Dividend Cafe - Monday September 16, 2024
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4eJ46qf Monday Market Update: Fed Policies, US Steel Deal, and Economic Trends In this episode of Dividend Cafe, David provides an update on the current state of the market, touching on various topics including public policy, the Federal Reserve, ... Show More
15m 14s
Apr 9
Tariff-ied markets
The global trade war intensifies as the Trump Tariffs come into effect. Equities continue to decline for the fourth consecutive day, threatening to push the S&P 500 into bear market territory, as investors seek safe havens. Meanwhile, Treasuries, once considered the world's ultim ... Show More
11m 51s
Apr 28
What Should Investors Expect from Earnings Season?
Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses how market volatility over the last month will affect equity markets as earnings season begins. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.  ----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morga ... Show More
3m 56s
Oct 2024
Markets Spin Toward Cyclicals
A slump in tech stocks may explain the market rotation – but it’s the earnings season that investors need to watch, says CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist Mike Wilson. ----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief US Eq ... Show More
4m 18s
Jul 2024
Inflation Disaster or Relief? Jared Dillian’s Dire Warning
Jared Dillian shares his urgent predictions on oil, inflation, the Fed, and the impact that the 2024 election could have on the economy. In this episode, host Andrew Brill is joined by Jared Dillian —author, trader, musician, entrepreneur, and educator. Jared discusses the pressi ... Show More
39m 44s
Apr 2024
Global equities back in the green
After a cautious start to Q2, equity markets regained their stride in Wednesday’s session climbing higher across regions. The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the Fed is still in wait-and-see mode when it comes to rate cuts, but markets took more comfort from the ... Show More
15m 49s
Dec 2024
Feeling Good about Feeling Good
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4fktJ0n Exploring Market Optimism Amid Economic Trends and Forecasts In this edition of Dividend Cafe, host David Bahnsen discusses the current optimism in small and large businesses as captured by the NFIB small business index and other indicato ... Show More
19m 2s
Aug 2024
Market divergence sees Dow surge to record high amid tech sell-off
US equity benchmarks struggled in trading yesterday with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices posting losses amid a rotation out of big tech and into small caps. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Equal Weight indices both hit record highs after US Fed Chair Powe ... Show More
14m 32s
Apr 12
153. Steve Eisman, the Real-Life "Big Short" Investor, on Tariff Panic and Lessons From the 2008 Crisis
Send us a textThis week on The Wall Street Skinny, we’re diving headfirst into one of the most volatile weeks in recent memory—and we brought backup. After a whiplash-inducing reversal in the bond and equity markets, Jen and Kristen break down how the tariff announcements are rip ... Show More
1h 13m