On today’s show we are talking about the risk premium being attached to US sovereign debt and how this has the potential to destabilize real estate markets for all US investors.
We are accustomed to thinking that the Fed sets the interest rate. But the truth is that the Fed only sets one interest rate. That is the Fed Funds rate that banks use to lend to each other.
The downgrade of the US debt by Moody’s debt rating agency last Friday was a reflection of the government’s persistent failure to adopt measures that would “reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs.” Moody’s was the third bond rating agency to downgrade the US sovereign debt after S&P and Fitch downgraded the US debt in August of 2023. It’s not the downgrade per se that is the problem. The market makes its own determination and does not just look at what the bond rating agencies have to say.
Spending is heading higher, regardless of who is in the White House. The demographic impact on entitlement programs is unavoidable. The population is aging and when the social security program was launched, there were 16.5 people in the workforce for every one person collecting benefits. Today there are 2.71 people in the workforce for every one person collecting benefits. By the mid 2030’s, that number is expected to fall to 2.3 people working for every one person collecting. The math doesn’t fund the liabilities.
The current White House was elected on the promise of the economy and of fiscal responsibility. The latest budget bill that had wound its way through the Congress shows an increase in spending and a widening budget deficit. Despite desires to cut government waste and abuse, the impact seems somewhat muted.
The bond market is clearly seeing significant risk to the ballooning US sovereign debt. This week’s auction in new US Treasuries did not go well. The appetite for new paper from the US government was muted and the price that was bid for the 30 year was so low that the yield on the 30 year is now above 5%. The 30 year Treasury is a long denomination bond and its yield moves very slowly. To have the price for that bond drop so sharply in a matter of days has definitely rattled markets.
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