logo
episode-header-image
Feb 2025
8m 53s

Lebanon’s Deadlock Doctrine

Gino Raidy
About this episode

Power in Lebanon isn’t about track records, courageous leadership, or bold vision. It’s about leverage—the ability to obstruct, disrupt, or threaten effectively. If you can halt parliamentary sessions, shut down the airport, or flood the streets with armed supporters, you hold power. This dangerous metric rewards destruction over construction and has kept Lebanon in a perpetual state of crisis.

As discussions about reconstruction take center stage, it’s crucial to examine this entrenched culture—not just in Lebanon but across the region. This is why the moment following our new government’s vote of confidence in parliament feels so significant. For the first time, obstruction seems nearly impossible, opening a rare opportunity to build and move forward rather than clinging stubbornly to failed tactics of the past.

This isn’t just a Lebanese phenomenon—many fragile states and conflict-prone societies operate on similar rules. But in Lebanon, this logic has been deeply entrenched in the political, economic, and even social fabric of the country. The ability to wield disruption as a weapon has been systematized, legitimized, and even romanticized. Worse yet, it has made some completely live in denial, insisting they were victorious even after signing a surrender.

The Power to Break, Not Build

At the heart of this issue is a political class that has always seen governance as a zero-sum game. The goal isn’t to create a better system but to secure enough leverage to either force others into concessions or prevent them from advancing without consent. Hezbollah exemplifies this strategy perfectly. It has operated outside the state while holding veto power over its decisions, maintaining an armed force beyond the reach of Lebanon’s legal and political institutions. But that reality is fading, if not entirely gone. Even Naim Qassem, in a speech during Hassan Nasrallah’s funeral, admitted as much.

When Michel Aoun’s bloc boycotted parliamentary sessions for two years to prevent a president from being elected, they were ultimately rewarded with the presidency. Even now, after 15 years in power with nothing to show for it, his son-in-law’s only real political agenda revolves around securing the “Christian share” of seats. When Hezbollah and its allies paralyzed government functions in 2011 by walking out, they successfully collapsed the cabinet.

Even during the October 17 uprising, protesters realized that blocking roads and disrupting daily life were far more effective at pressuring the government than any traditional form of political participation—because those channels had already been rendered useless. The system is structured so that disruption becomes the only viable tool for change—an indictment of the system itself.

A System Built for Permanent Stalemate

The Lebanese system rewards veto power and obstruction, creating a political culture where compromise is seen as weakness. Other countries have opposition parties that challenge those in power through policy debates or electoral strategies. In Lebanon, opposition is expressed through threats: If you don’t give me what I want, I will shut everything down.

This extends beyond politics into business and daily life. Economic monopolies are protected not by market forces but by the implicit threat of chaos if they are challenged. Entire industries operate on wasta, the unspoken understanding that power comes from being able to manipulate and exploit the system, not from contributing to it.

The result is a country perpetually frozen, unable to move forward because every faction—political or otherwise—holds the power to bring everything to a halt but has no incentive to build something sustainable. After all, why put in the work when your entire platform is based on “the others are stealing, so we must take our share too”? And sadly, partisans buy into it. The focus is always on how to weaken the perceived existential enemy, never on how to strengthen ourselves to better withstand future crises.

Hezbollah proudly flaunted its rockets but had no plan for the hundreds of thousands of Lebanese who would be displaced as a result. It was left to ordinary people—many of whom had suffered under Hezbollah’s rule—to take in the internally displaced, left stranded by Nasrallah’s unilateral decision to launch an all-out war against Israel.

This culture of disruption as power extends beyond Lebanon. Take the Houthis, for example. Their entire identity revolves around their ability to cause chaos—whether it’s launching missiles at Saudi Arabia and the UAE or, more recently, reveling in their ability to disrupt maritime traffic in the Red Sea. They frame these acts as victories, yet they offer no real vision for governance, no strategy for economic development, and no plan to improve the lives of Yemenis. Their only currency is disruption—one that punishes not just their adversaries but the very Arab countries they claim to defend.

And then there’s the Iranian regime, the patron of this entire ecosystem of destruction. Tehran loves to promise post-war reconstruction aid for Lebanon, Syria, and even Gaza, yet it can’t even keep the lights on at home. But when it comes to weapons? The regime always seems to find the money. While Iranian citizens struggle under economic collapse, their government spared no expense to prop up Bashar al-Assad’s slaughterhouses and ensure Hezbollah’s grip on Lebanon and Syria remained well-stocked. Before it all crumbled under the weight of its own corruption and decay, Hezbollah once fashioned itself as a "resistance movement." Today, it has fully morphed into a mercenary force, serving the highest bidder in whatever conflict Tehran deems beneficial for the negotiations it strives for with the West.

The parallels are clear: whether it’s Hezbollah, the Houthis, or the Iranian regime itself, power is defined not by the ability to build, but by the capacity to destroy. And as long as this remains the measure of influence in the region, real progress will remain just out of reach.

Breaking the Cycle

Lebanon’s real crisis is not just economic or political—it is cultural. The idea that power is measured by one’s ability to obstruct rather than create has shaped the country’s trajectory for decades. And while Hezbollah’s role in this dynamic is undeniable, so is the complicity of every major political faction that has operated within the same logic. On brinksmanship, on freezing the status quo, even if it meant working with Riad Salameh to literally steal our deposits and savings from our bank accounts.

Breaking this cycle requires a fundamental shift in how power is conceptualized. It requires a move away from transactional politics where concessions are only made under duress. It means abandoning the glorification of "strong leaders" who prove their strength by their ability to disrupt and threaten. It means rejecting the idea that chaos is the only available currency in Lebanese politics.

The challenge is immense because the entire system—from its sectarian structures to its patronage networks—thrives on maintaining the status quo. But as Lebanon continues its freefall, the alternative is clear: either we redefine power, or we remain trapped in this cycle of self-inflicted paralysis.

This is why Nawaf Salam and Joseph Aoun worked so hard to ensure there would be no clear “obstructing third”—yet another Lebanese political invention designed to paralyze governance. Without it, the cabinet has at least a fighting chance to begin the reconstitution of a Lebanese state—one that Hezbollah and its collaborators from the sectarian parties have meticulously dismantled over decades.

In other words, let’s redefine strength and success as building ourselves up—our institutions, our economy, and our capabilities—rather than measuring them by how much “pain we inflict.” Especially when that pain is negligible compared to what we’ve endured: over 4,000 killed and $10 billion in damages.

Let’s try building for once instead of destroying. We’ve seen where destruction leads—it has never served us. So why not choose a different path this time?

Gino's Blog is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.



Get full access to Gino's Blog at ginoraidy.substack.com/subscribe
Up next
May 2025
A Conversation with Beirut Madinati's Kristy Asseily & Marc Tueni
This is my endorsement for the Beirut Madinati coalition running in the 2025 Beirut Municipality elections this Sunday, May 18.Let me take you back to 2016. That was long before the Thawra and probably the first time many of you heard of me or the work I do. It was during the gar ... Show More
46m 26s
Apr 2025
Why Lebanese Bankerjiyyeh Went All-In on the Soros Stuff & Failed
The saddest thing about the failed smear campaign against change MPs and independent media outlets like Megaphone and Daraj is how lazy it was. For the past few weeks, I’ve been trying to wrap my head around why the elites who enriched themselves before the Thawra chose to just c ... Show More
18m 20s
Apr 2025
What the Banking Secrecy Law Amendment Victory Means & What's Next with Dr. Mohamad Farida
I will be diving deeper into the smear campaigns and why they failed so spectacularly on Monday’s episode!In the meantime, Dr Mohamad Farida, from the Depositors Union, took a break from advocating for the amendment in ongoing parliamentary sessions, to give us all an update. Get ... Show More
23m 1s
Recommended Episodes
Jun 2024
Frankly Speaking | S10 E7 | Ziad Hayek, Lebanese Presidential Candidate
On this episode of Frankly Speaking, we hear from Lebanese Presidential Candidate Ziad Hayek who is on a mission to shatter Lebanon's political deadlock and forge a path to a stable government. Can he triumph without Hezbollah's backing, or will he be forced to join forces with t ... Show More
35m 31s
Nov 2024
#20 - Let's Talk Hezbollah ft. Joseph Daher
In September, Israel violently escalated its offensive against Lebanon, allegedly aiming to destroy the anti-Zionist resistance group and political party, Hezbollah, for its support for Palestine and anti-genocide intervention. This is not the first time Israel aimed to destroy L ... Show More
1h 11m
Aug 2024
'The gov't is hoping Israelis are too worried about their safety to think about democracy'
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been enjoying a "dramatic but quite consistent recovery" in the polls in past months, after the failures of October 7 sent his popularity plummeting to unprecedented lows, according to public opinion expert and Haaretz columnist Dr. Dahlia Sc ... Show More
44m 13s
Sep 2024
Hostage's father: 'It's a living nightmare. And if Netanyahu doesn't get this done, there will be more bodies'
If Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "ever had a moral compass, he lost it long ago," said Jonathan Dekel-Chen, father of Israeli hostage Sagui Dekel-Chen on the Haaretz Podcast. The six hostages brutally murdered by Hamas after surviving eleven months of captivity "shoul ... Show More
26m 40s
Oct 2024
'Expect Hezbollah to keep attacking Israel until its last missile'
In retrospect, Israel should not have endured a year of Hezbollah missile attacks that decimated its northern region before fighting back, Orna Mizrahi, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies said on the Haaretz Podcast, but waiting appeared to be the ... Show More
21m 30s
Sep 29
Pro-EU party wins Moldova election amid claims of Russian interference
Moldova's pro-European party has won a new majority in parliament after elections seen as critical for the country's future path to the EU. President Maia Sandu warned of "massive Russian interference" after voting on Sunday and said the future of her country was at stake. Also, ... Show More
32m 24s
Jan 2025
2025, Israël et les fronts multiples
Dans le sillon de la réponse aux attentats du 7 octobre 2023 en Israël, l’État hébreu multiplie les offensives au Proche-Orient contre la nébuleuse iranienne de l’« Axe de la résistance ». Les évènements en Syrie ne semblent pas faire changer de cap le Premier ministre israélien, ... Show More
3m 23s
Sep 30
Hamas studying Trump-Netanyahu peace plan
President Trump has declared that peace in the Middle East is "beyond very close" as he presented a new plan alongside the Israeli prime minister, with both men saying Hamas must agree to it or Israel will finish its offensive in Gaza. The Palestinian group is studying the 20 poi ... Show More
30m 26s
Sep 28
Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, President of Somalia : Somalia has a serious security challenge
Somalia has a serious security challengePaul Njie speaks to Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, President of Somalia, about ongoing efforts to achieve security and stability in his country. While he says much progress has been made in tackling terror, he acknowledges that the insurgent groups ... Show More
22m 59s
Sep 30
Hezbollah's Existential Crisis: Lebanon's effort to disarm the resistance and the future of the Party of God
It has been annus horribilis for Hezbollah.They were struck by a deadly pager attack, Israel launched a devastating air and ground campaign against the group, and their long-time leader was killed in an Israeli airstrike. The war left Hezbollah battered and broken, and now, the L ... Show More
29m 46s