China’s new DeepSeek AI model, which reportedly matches GPT-4’s performance at 1/45th the cost, has rattled the AI hardware market and contributed to a 20% dip in Nvidia’s stock price. Investor-technologist Jeffrey Emanuel argues that DeepSeek’s efficiency gains aren’t the only story, as his viral 12,000-word article “The Short Case for Nvidia Stock” also catalyzed the market’s panic. In this episode, we explore how these converging factors could unbundle Nvidia’s once-unassailable lead and drastically reshape AI compute economics.
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------ TIMESTAMPS 00:00 Start 05:20 Intro To Jeff 07:27 The Issue With DeepSeek 16:00 Inference Compute Explained 24:51 Nvidia's Competition 29:14 DeepSeek's Impact On Valuations 36:46 Criticism Around Jeff's Thesis 44:17 DeepSeek's 45x Upgrade 51:30 The Transformer Explained 01:03:15 Why Is Everyone Shocked? 01:12:07 Synthetic Data 01:21:30 Why Jeff's Article Went Viral
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