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Jan 2025
9m 21s

What's Happening with the Lebanese Cabin...

Gino Raidy
About this episode

Let me keep this short, but I can’t stay silent on this. The usual suspects are at it again—ganging up to strong-arm Nawaf Salam and Joseph Aoun into caving to their demands. Why? So they can cash in some favors and avoid getting wiped out in the upcoming elections. Let’s dive in.

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What Salam Demands

* No partisan ministers—no one who's a card-carrying member of any political party.

* No ministers from the last three cabinets.

* Parties with enough representation must submit resumes and names they’re okay with, leaving Joseph Aoun and Nawaf Salam to pick who actually makes it into the cabinet.

All of this is just common sense. We can’t have party stooges stepping out of cabinet meetings to WhatsApp their zaim for instructions before casting a vote. And we sure as hell can’t have a minister who presided over the August 4 blast or the orchestrated financial collapse. That should go without saying—but here I am, saying it anyway.

As for the last point, the constitution is crystal clear: it’s the PM and President’s call. The former parties that used to rule under Nasrallah’s rule, still haven’t accepted that there’s a new sheriff in town and they can’t hide behind old excuses to force terrible ministers down Lebanon’s throat anymore.

The Unlikely Alliance

It’s strange, at first glance, to see Hezbollah, Amal, the FPM, and the Lebanese Forces aligning in their disinformation campaigns against Nawaf Salam and Joseph Aoun, trying to sink their chances from the start.

But if you’ve been paying attention, it’s not strange at all. This is exactly what these parties do. Their brinkmanship to install loyal lieutenants in power isn’t going to change overnight. And honestly, who can blame them? With a little over a year until a parliamentary election that’s likely to gut many of their blocs, they’re scrambling to milk every last cent and favor from the government while they still can. They’re desperate to hire their cronies, dole out benefits to voters, and claw back some of the support they’ve already lost.

So, of course, after we blocked their path to Foud Makhzoomi—their favorite who promised them an even bigger slice of the pie—and brought in Salam instead, they’re doubling down. They’re still going to squeeze out whatever they can to shore up their crumbling patronage networks.

Why It Doesn’t Matter

While the usual suspects are desperate for business as usual to return, the game has changed in ways that no longer work in their favor. The days of Iranian planes flying in bags of cash to fuel Wafik Safa’s “plata o plomo” tactics are over. The Assad regime no longer has the clout to prop up the so-called Axis of Resistance. And the only way Lebanon is getting the funds to rebuild what Hezbollah and Israel destroyed is from countries that won’t be bullied by Mohamad Raad’s threats.

From the GCC countries to the Trump administration and Europe, no one’s caving. Macron might still be licking his wounds over his buddy Mikati pulling in fewer votes than I have fingers, but even he knows the jig is up.

No matter who gets which ministry, there will be enough oversight and safeguards in place to keep the gruesome twosome from slipping back into their old dirty tricks.

Have Some Respect and Brains

Nawaf Salam’s victory made Mohamad Raad go into a severe depression. They were flabbergasted and deflated. It’s the same Nawaf Salam that was instrumental in making sure the Special Tribunal for Lebanon was created to try the killers of Rafik Hariri and others, namely Hezbollah and the Assad regime. How the hell are you so naive to pretend he is their man now, given how dazed and confused and betrayed Hezbollah was after we pulled off getting him appointed while they were busy trying to threaten. Inno, come on peeps. If you’re waiting for any excuse to give up and not do the work, just spare us all and sit this one out.

Joseph Aoun and Nawaf Salam came with our support. Our support needs to be steady and immovable by cheap Twitter campaigns of disinformation by the usual suspects trying to buy off some votes like they always have, instead of actually do their jobs.

In their acceptance speeches, both Joseph and Nawaf made it clear: they aim to include everyone, not isolate anyone. Isolation and exclusion are Hezbollah’s tactics—not ours. What’s promising this time is the presence of guardrails set by our president and prime minister to ensure they adhere to our laws and constitution. More importantly, these measures will prevent the formation of a cabinet filled with troublemakers whose sole purpose is to maintain the status quo and keep their masters relevant in a world that’s already moved on.

Democracy, Lebanese-style, means everyone gets a voice, but no one gets to impose their will on the rest. Even if the gruesome twosome manage to secure some ministers—because, yes, they do have MPs—it doesn’t mean they’ll be able to derail the country as they’ve done for decades. Not anymore. Not with an invigorated public like us and energized judges like Tarek Bitar leading the charge.

A party we despise getting ministers isn’t the end—it’s the start of their reintegration into Lebanon. It’s the beginning of their return to their actual size, stripped of the bloated carcass they’d become, inflated by illegitimate weapons and repeated invasions of Beirut to impose their will.

Have Faith!

If you don’t believe in yourself, why would anyone else? We fought to bring two men we trust into power, only to falter at the first sign of a paid Twitter smear campaign filled with baseless rumors. Don’t let that manipulate your emotions or shake your resolve.

Getting Nawaf Salam instead of Mikati or Makhzoomi was a monumental win, but it was just one step in a long, grueling journey. This is a marathon, not a 100-meter sprint, so stop treating every challenge like it’s the end of the world. Of course, forming the cabinet was always going to be tricky—but we’re more than capable of meeting this challenge head-on.

Resist the defeatist mindset of older generations who throw up their hands and say “screw it” when things get tough. Don’t be so quick to lose faith. Stay steady in your convictions and keep working to make them a reality.

That’s how we’ll win.

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