What does 2025 have in store for investors? Join us as we dive deep into the markets, macroeconomics, and the evolving landscape of risk and opportunity with Aahan Menon, Founder and CEO of Prometheus Research. In this special kickoff-to-2025 episode of Raise Your Average, Aahan breaks down his systematic and probabilistic approach to navigating today’s unpredictable economic environment, shares his investment outlook, as well as asset allocation. You may be surprised.
Key Insights:
Macro Trends for 2025: How growth, inflation, and interest rates are setting the stage for the year ahead.
Managing Risk: Why a systematic framework is essential in a time of elevated uncertainty.
Market Narratives Unpacked: The disconnects between popular sentiment and economic data.
Probabilities, Not Predictions: How Prometheus Research quantifies risk and uncovers market opportunities in real time.
Actionable Takeaways: Prometheus' 4 ETF portfolio model, for investors looking to stay ahead of the curve in a rapidly shifting environment.
Quote of the Episode: "Investing today isn’t about certainty—it’s about managing probabilities in a world of growing complexity." – Aahan Menon
Chapters:
00:00 Introduction and Guest Welcome
01:19 Ahan Menon's Investment Framework
01:58 Market Dynamics and 2024 Review
05:48 Economic Indicators and Forecasts
10:21 Interest Rates and Economic Impact
24:51 Liquidity Conditions and Market Implications
46:52 Manufacturing Sector Challenges
53:15 Challenges in the Manufacturing Sector
53:26 Impact of Borrowing and Leverage
53:58 Wage Costs and Interest Burden
54:46 Investment and Borrowing Trends
56:10 Commodity Market Dynamics
58:02 Alpha Portfolio Strategies
01:01:38 Manufacturing and Economic Growth
01:03:53 Recession Indicators and Economic Slowdown
01:11:29 Real Estate Sector Analysis
01:17:14 Signal Strength and Portfolio Allocation
01:21:34 Bond Market Insights
01:31:58 Commodity Market Outlook
01:36:12 Asset Allocation - What to do now
01:43:40 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
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Connect with Us:
Follow Aahan Menon on Linkedin
Prometheus Research on Substack
ReSolve Asset Management
Mike Philbrick on Linkedin
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