In this episode, Eric Basmajian joins the show to break down the business cycle, how the cyclical economy impacts the broader economy, and the housing sector’s role in the business cycle. We also delve into the strong GDP numbers, how to measure the labor market and interpret revisions, and much more. Enjoy!
__
Follow Eric Basmajian: https://x.com/epbresearch?lang=en
Follow Eric’s Substack: https://epbresearch.substack.com/
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:34) Breaking Down the Business Cycle
(09:24) Is this Cycle Different?
(12:24) Durable Goods Manufacturing & Motor Vehicles
(18:20) The Cyclical Economy
(21:52) The Housing Sector
(26:17) Reconciling Strong GDP with Cyclical Slowing
(30:44) Measuring the Labor Market
(34:41) Digging Into Jobless Claims
(39:35) Impact of Gig Economy on Jobless Claims
(42:02) Non-Farm Payrolls & Revisions
(47:12) The Unemployment Rate
(50:33) The Neutral Rate & Yield Curve
(57:46) Will Fed Cuts Reignite Inflation?
(01:01:32) Learn More About Eric's Work
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.