A bonanza on the semiconductor industry and hardware scaling to AGI by the end of the decade.
Dylan Patel runs Semianalysis, the leading publication and research firm on AI hardware. Jon Y runs Asianometry, the world’s best YouTube channel on semiconductors and business history.
* What Xi would do if he became scaling pilled
* $ 1T+ in datacenter buildout by end of decade
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Timestamps
00:08:25 – How semiconductors get better
00:11:16 – China can centralize compute
00:18:50 – Export controls & sanctions
00:32:51 – Huawei's intense culture
00:38:51 – Why the semiconductor industry is so stratified
00:40:58 – N2 should not exist
00:45:53 – Taiwan invasion hypothetical
00:49:21 – Mind-boggling complexity of semiconductors
00:59:13 – Chip architecture design
01:04:36 – Architectures lead to different AI models? China vs. US
01:10:12 – Being head of compute at an AI lab
01:16:24 – Scaling costs and power demand
01:37:05 – Are we financing an AI bubble?
01:50:20 – Starting Asianometry and SemiAnalysis
02:06:10 – Opportunities in the semiconductor stack