Tom welcomes Garrett Goggin, a seasoned financial analyst with expertise in trading and a strong emphasis on alternative assets like gold and silver. Goggin expresses his views on the current economic climate marked by the U.S. dollar’s value erosion due to inflation and escalating debt. He regards gold and silver as reliable stores of value for future decades.
Goggin further explores the significance of the yield curve inversion, which he believes signals an impending recession and market correction. In past instances, gold has doubled in value following a yield curve inversion and a subsequent recession. He anticipates that this trend will continue, possibly leading to another gold price doubling. Institutions are predicted to invest in the gold sector as its performance continues to improve.
The conversation touches on the gold market’s current dynamics, including the growing interest from investors that is not reflected in GLD shares outstanding but is visible in the growth of silver miners. The demand for silver exceeds production and existing stocks, potentially leading to a deficit and an escalating price surge.
Central banks’ role in gold prices and their correlation with rate cuts during economic downturns are also discussed. Goggin predicts that as inflation persists and economies decelerate, gold will remain a valuable hedge against economic turmoil.
Garrett shares his philosophy for constructing a portfolio in gold and silver, focusing on analyzing companies rather than historical ratios or charts, emphasizing the significance of high-grade deposits and competent management. He advocates investing in inflation protection machines like royalties due to their fixed costs, minimal management, and potential for exploration success without being impacted by cost inflation. Smaller explorers and developers that can generate significant value through successful drill holes are also suggested.
The conversation delves into the characteristics of mining companies that make them attractive takeover targets, with a focus on high-grade projects, low cost operations, and cash generation. Royalties are highlighted for their exploration upside and potential to significantly increase shareholder value over time.
Timestamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:50 – Background & Alt Assets
2:05 – Market/Economy Overview
3:44 – Recession & Market Crash
4:50 – Gold Thoughts & Momentum
9:13 – Inflation Outlook
10:57 – Gold During Rate Cuts
11:36 – Silvers Performance?
16:17 – Portfolio Balance
19:57 – Qualities in Miners
25:14 – Upsides to Royalties?
30:02 – Takeover Targets
31:52 – Royalty Structures
34:45 – Technology & Mining
39:43 – A Gold Top Looks Like?
43:00 – Wrap Up
Guest Links:
Website: https://Goldenportfolio.com
X: https://x.com/GarrettGoggin
Garrett Goggin’s career began in 1995 at the New York Stock Exchange, where he filled orders amidst the specialist booths. The NYSE was the economic heartbeat, its vibrant atmosphere pulsing with price adjustments following breaking news. Post-NYSE, Goggin joined a derivative arbitrage firm based in the UK and Ireland, marking his introduction to this niche trading strategy.
However, his fascination lay in gold, silver, and commodities. In contrast to the unpredictability of longer-term investments, these markets offered a sense of control. Goggin’s conviction was that mastery of commodity markets wasn’t contingent on luck but knowledge.
His quest for gold and silver took him across continents, visiting numerous mines and conversing with their overseers. For over fifteen years, he partnered with esteemed research entities Gold Stock Analyst and Stansberry Research, serving as a precious metals analyst.
A respected figure at prestigious gold conferences such as the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada’s (PDAC) Toronto event and Denver Gold Show Europe in Zurich, Goggin is a preferred resource for leading gold and silver developers due to his insightful research.
Credentialed with Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and Certified Market Technician (CMT) designations, Goggin’s educational background includes MS and MBA degrees from Babson College, renowned for its business programs.