In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the importance of avoiding expressions of absolute certainty when operating in fields subject to randomness and human emotion, like politics, economics, and investing. He suggests that it’s better to have humility and acknowledge that the smartest thing to say is often “I don’t know.”
You can read the memo here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-folly-of-certainty).