logo
episode-header-image
Jul 2024
1h 6m

20VC: Why We Are in a Bubble & Now is Fr...

Harry Stebbings
About this episode

Saam Motamedi is a General Partner at Greylock, where he has led investments in Abnormal Security (incubated at Greylock), Apiiro Security and Opal Security, as well as AI companies like Adept, Braintrst, Cresta, Predibase, Snorkel, and more. Before Greylock, Saam founded Guru Labs, a machine learning-driven fintech startup, and worked in product management at RelateIQ, one of the first applied AI software companies.

In Today's Conversation We Discuss:

1. Seed Today is Frothier than 2021:

  • How does Saam evaluate the seed market today?
  • With seed pricing being so high, how does he reflect on his own price sensitivity? When does he say too much and does not do it?
  • Despite seed pricing being higher than ever before, why does Saam believe it is rational?
  • How has the competition at seed changed in the last few years?

2. Series B and Growth are not a Viable Asset Class Today:

  • Why does Saam believe that you cannot make money at Series B today?
  • Why has pricing gone through the roof? Who is the new competition?
  • When does it make sense to "play the game on the field" vs say this is BS and do something else?
  • What would need to happen in the public markets for Series B to be a viable asset class again?

3. Markets vs Founders: The Billion Dollar Mistake and Lessons:

  • How does Saam prioritise between founder vs market?
  • What have been Saam's biggest lessons when it comes to market sizing and timing?
  • What is Saam's biggest miss? How did it change his approach and company evaluation?
  • Which other VC would Saam most like to swap portfolios with? Why them?

4. Saam Motamedi: AMA:

  • What does Saam know now that he wishes he had known when he got into VC?
  • Saam has had a meteoric rise in Greylock, what advice does Saam have for those younger investors look to really scale within a firm?
  • Sourcing, selecting and servicing: Where is he best? Where is he worst?
  • Why does Saam believe that most VCs do not add value?

20VC: Why We Are in a Bubble & Now is Frothier Than 2021 | Why $1M ARR is a BS Milestone for Series A | Why Seed Pricing is Rational & Large Seed Rounds Have Less Risk | Why Many AI Apps Have BS Revenue & Are Not Sustainable with Saam Motamedi @ Greylock

Up next
Today
20VC: Daniel Gross and Nat Friedman: Acquired by Meta | OpenAI’s SBC Bombshell: More Stock Comp Than Revenue | Privat Equity is Back: Olo Bought for $2BN | Microsoft Lays Off 9,000 People: Is This Just the Start | Will Sequoia Part with Shaun Maguire
Agenda: [00:00] The AI Talent Crisis No One’s Ready For [03:00] Daniel Gross and Nat Friedman: Why Two Legendary VCs Walked Away From $1B to Join Meta [12:00] Meta’s AI Talent Magnet: Will It Actually Work? [15:00] Cursor Is Breaking the Market: Can Anyone Compete? [18:30] OpenAI ... Show More
1h 7m
Jul 7
20VC: Scott Galloway on Are Billionaires Happy & The Impact of Money on Psychology and Self-Worth | Becoming a Better Father & Husband | Why We Should Drink More and Not Work From Home | The Tinder Effect & How it Makes Young Men Radical
Scott Galloway is a Professor of Marketing at NYU Stern, where he’s taught for over two decades. He’s the founder of several successful companies, including L2 (acquired by Gartner for over $150M), Red Envelope, and Prophet. He’s a New York Times bestselling author of four books ... Show More
1h 10m
Jul 3
20VC: Figma's IPO: The Full Breakdown | Index Returns $3.5BN on Two Deals | Why Melio's $2.5BN Acquisition is "Discouraging" | Asana's New CEO and the Great Founder Exodus | Oracle's $30BN AI Deal and What it Means for Incumbents
AGENDA: 00:00 – $400B in AI CapEx: Rational Investment or Madness? 05:00 – Figma's IPO: Rule of 80, $1.5B in cash, 40% margins. Unreal. 08:00 – Adobe Screwed the Deal—Should They Have Just Bought Canva? 16:00 – Pay-to-Play Deals: Heroic Hail Mary or Guaranteed Write-Off? 21:30 – ... Show More
1h 11m
Recommended Episodes
Jun 2024
Venture Capitalist Who Called 2021 “Everything Bubble” Thinks VC Valuations Are “Reasonable” | Fabrice Grinda, Super Angel Investor, on Geopolitical Threats, AI, and Yield-Bearing Stablecoins
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.Midas’ website: https://midas.app/Follow Midas on Twitter https://x.com/midasrwaFabrice Grinda’s website: https://fabricegrinda.com/Fabrice Grinda on ... Show More
1h 30m
Feb 2024
How the Rise of 'Pod Shops' Is Reshaping the Way Markets Trade
 The hedge fund industry has gone through multiple evolutions. Investing styles go in and out of fashion as market conditions change. Strategies that work become crowded with investors, which can mean they stop working as well. The hottest thing these days are so-called multi-str ... Show More
49m 21s
Jun 11
Why Big Tech Is Spending Millions to Partner with Smart AI Startups
What if the next big wave in marketing isn’t about targeting people at all—but impressing their AI agents instead?Abhay Parasnis, CEO of Typeface and former CTO at Adobe, joins us to explain why the future of brand discovery is less “search bar” and more “autonomous agents doing ... Show More
1h 9m
May 2021
SI140: Down Markets Are Often a Treasure to Trend Followers ft. Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss the benefits of prioritising price over other factors, navigating a high-inflationary environment, how bad markets for average investors can often be great for Trend Followers, how public awareness of a market uptrend can often precede large ... Show More
1h 11m
Jan 2021
SI124: Why smart people often struggle with systematic investing ft. Jerry Parker
Turtle Trading legend Jerry Parker joins us today to discuss why smart people often struggle with systematic investing, the benefits of non-predictive investment strategies, what changes Jerry would make to Richard Dennis and William Eckhart’s original Turtle Trading rules, why p ... Show More
1h 1m
Jan 2025
What DeepSeek Means For Markets & The The Future Of AI | Alex Campbell
In this episode, Alex Campbell joins the show to discuss the market implications of the latest DeepSeek innovation, the evolving AI geopolitical game theory, and the winners and losers of the AI race. We also delve into the tension between AI productivity and employment, a framew ... Show More
53m 30s
Jul 2
Startup Valuations, Biotech’s Crunch & AI’s Massive TAM | E2147
Today’s show:It’s another blockbuster panel of insiders, as Alex sits down with Astasia Myers from Felicis, Matt Turck from First Mark Capital, and D.A. Wallach of Time BioVentures. AI is reshaping early-stage investing, with startups raising record-setting rounds adn chasing $10 ... Show More
1h 16m
Dec 2024
Looking Ahead: What Are the Top Trends for Fintech in 2025
In this episode of Deciphered, Adam Davis, expert associate partner at Bain & Company and Jeff Tijssen, partner and global head of Fintech, Bain & Company are joined by an all-Bain lineup, Karim Ahmad, expert partner, Mike Smith, expert partner, and Tevia Segovia, partner to disc ... Show More
51m 27s
Dec 2024
Reviewing "AI Eats the World"
How are the largest VCs viewing the early stages of the AI Era, from the perspective of investment, technology moats, economics, early adoption and future use-cases.   SHOW: 879SHOW TRANSCRIPT: The Cloudcast #879 TranscriptSHOW VIDEO: https://youtube.com/@TheCloudcastNET CLOUD NE ... Show More
41m 16s
Sep 2024
BONUS • PVG's Patrick Adams: The Secret to "Loss Averse" Investing
Many investors only focus on potential PROFITS when they buy and sell stocks. But savvy investors know to focus on potential risks, too – and take steps to mitigate them when markets get volatile. Patrick Adams, CEO of PVG Asset Management, has honed his skills during a 38-year c ... Show More
4m 43s