logo
episode-header-image
May 2024
1h 19m

Nick Givanovic: Treasury Bonds Are “Hist...

Blockworks
About this episode

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.

Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.

VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.

__

Follow Nick Givanovic on Twitter https://twitter.com/nickgiva1

Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

__

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:30) Nick Favors Stocks Over Bonds Until He Sees Data That Say Otherwise

(05:25) Potential For An Bond Auction Failure

(06:44) U.S Government Borrowing: Treasury Bills vs. Treasury Coupons

(21:49) Conditions At Recent Treasury Market Auctions

(25:13) Short Bonds, But Not Wildly Bearish

(26:13) VanEck Ad

(27:14) Is Yield Curve Steepener Trade Positive Carry or Negative Carry?

(28:43) Inflation Volatility Is Bad For Term Premia

(33:13) Bull Steepener vs. Bear Steepener: How Will The Yield Curve Uninvert?

(39:10) Bull Steepeners Usually Occur Faster Than Bear Steepeners (Nick Thinks Bull Steepener Could Be More Likely)

(54:24) Volatility In The Bond Market

(01:02:21) Relative to Bonds, Nick Is Bullish On Stocks

(01:07:49) The Labor Market

(01:09:53) GameStop and the Return of Meme Stocks

__

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Up next
Yesterday
The Only Assets That Beat Fiat Debasement | Raoul Pal & Julien Bittel
In this episode, Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel explain their “Everything Code” framework showing how global debt cycles, demographics, and liquidity drive all asset prices. They argue fiat debasement is running at ~8% annually, meaning only tech stocks and crypto have outperformed ... Show More
1h 10m
Jul 4
Unpacking The Crypto Treasury Meta
In this live panel from Permissionless IV, we unpack the rapid rise of token acquisition vehicles like MicroStrategy and Defi Dev Corp. We explore why institutions are using these vehicles to accumulate crypto faster, analyze premium-to-NAV dynamics, discuss the evolution from eq ... Show More
35m 9s
Jul 4
All Roads Lead To Debasement | Weekly Roundup
This week, we dive into the latest jobs and unemployment data surprises, the hidden role of immigration in labor force changes, and why both political parties are terrible. We also dig into the looming deficit and treasury issuance implications, the EM-ification of the US, the sy ... Show More
1h 13m
Recommended Episodes
Apr 2024
Now Bulls Can’t Leave with Ben Kallo of RW Baird
On this episode of “On The Tape,” Dan Nathan, Guy Adami and Danny Moses discuss the stock market moving on Fed cut expectations (3:00), what the rally in gold is telling us about the market (14:00), weakness in the Yen (17:00), the Jobs Report (18:00), huge moves in some of the b ... Show More
1h 5m
Feb 2023
Recession, Soft Landing or Higher For Longer? | Kevin Flanagan
On today's episode of The Macro Trading Floor, Andreas and Alfonso welcome Kevin Flanagan Head of Fixed Income Strategy at WisdomTree for a discussion on everything happening in global bond markets. Since 2022, the consensus has flip flopped from recession, to soft landing as mar ... Show More
57m 19s
Feb 2024
These Aren’t the Shorts You Are Looking for with Luke Gromen of FFTT
On this episode of “On The Tape,” Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses discuss the broken market structure, opportunities in the market, China and more! Later, Danny and Guy sit down with Luke Gromen, founder of Forest from the Trees, for his macro view and bullish stock market ... Show More
1h 9m
Dec 2023
The Higher Stocks Rise the Harder They Fall with Jeff Toporek of FD Stonewater
On this episode of “On The Tape,” Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, and Liz Young give a preview of the week ahead, including the last Fed meeting of the year. Dan and Guy sit down with Jeff Toporek of FD Stonewater for a conversation about commercial real estate and interest rates. Key Ins ... Show More
1h 2m
Aug 2023
Credit event, long duration treasuries, utilities and classifying a bear market
Michael Gayed sees a melt-up and potentially a crash, all in the same year (0:20). Credit event coming (2:10) long duration treasuries as a hedge (4:20) classifying a bull and bear market (6:30) why he likes utilities sector (11:50) developed and emerging markets; value vs. growt ... Show More
16m 41s
Dec 2023
Brokeback Market
Dan Nathan, Danny Moses and Guy Adami discuss market sell-offs, 0DTE options and the state of the consumer through the lens of 'Buy Now, Pay Later" Key Insights from the Pod: The brief market sell-off (2:00) Zero Days to Expiration (0DTE) Options (7:15) Overbought conditions (10: ... Show More
34m 53s
Nov 2022
What to Buy or Skip: I Bonds, Apple, Amazon, or Meta
In today’s episode, Katherine Lynch, a Morningstar Inc’s data journalist, talks about the new I Bonds’ interest rate, how the investments work, and how to use them as an emergency fund.Investing Insights is bringing you a mix of market news, insights from analysts, and personal f ... Show More
19m 19s
Dec 2023
Don’t Look Back in Anger
On this episode of “On The Tape,” Dan Nathan, Guy Adami, Danny Moses, and Stuart Sopp, CEO of Current, discuss the Fed meeting and the stock market at record highs.  Key Insights from the Pod: The Fed Cut Pivot (1:30) Expectations for 2024 (10:40) The Market Rotation (16:30) Ener ... Show More
45m 3s
Mar 2024
I’d Rather Be A Bull: A Conversation with David Rosenberg
On this episode of “On The Tape,” David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research joins Dan Nathan and Guy Adami for the full show! Topics they hit include what the bears got wrong about the stock market (2:30), market concentration (8:00), liquidity (11:45), the AI boom comparisons to the ... Show More
50m 2s