The latest Times polling shows the extent of the challenge that President Biden faces and the strengths that Donald J. Trump retains. A yearning for change — as well as discontent over the economy and the war in Gaza among young, Black and Hispanic voters — may lie behind both.

Nate Cohn, our chief political analyst, explains the surveys: New York Times/Siena College polls of Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, and the inaugural Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena poll in Pennsylvania.

Guest: Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst for The New York Times.

Background reading:

Surveys by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer reveal an erosion of support for the president among young and nonwhite voters upset about the economy and Gaza.
With polls showing that Trump is set to make a demographic breakthrough, ticket splitting is also back.

For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.

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