logo
episode-header-image
Apr 2024
13m 5s

Who will move first – the ECB or the Fed...

JULIUS BAER
About this episode

The major US equity indices closed around flat yesterday while small caps outperformed, with the Russell 2000 index gaining 0.5%. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.43%, prompting investors to raise their bets on the Fed cutting rates just twice this year following last week’s jobs data upside surprise. And David Kohl, Chief Economist, provides his outlook for the future interest rate policy paths for the Fed and the ECB.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

05:54 Outlook for the Fed and ECB by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

11:53 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)


Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Up next
Today
Markets on edge as Middle East conflict widens
While European markets tumbled amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East, US equities held up surprisingly well. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 managed to post modest gains, supported largely by strength in the technology sector. This morning, however, oil prices have clim ... Show More
11m 57s
Yesterday
War in the Middle East
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated over the weekend, with coordinated strikes by the US and Israel targeting Iranian facilities and leadership. In response, Iran has launched retaliatory strikes across the Gulf region. The surge in hostilities has placed glob ... Show More
12m 59s
Feb 28
The View Beyond: The road ahead after the US Supreme Court's tariffs decision
The recent US Supreme Court decision on tariffs has shifted the landscape for investors, replacing a patchwork of country-specific measures with a temporary universal tariff. What does this mean for markets overall, different countries and sectors, the US dollar and fixed income? ... Show More
8m 57s
Recommended Episodes
Sep 2025
The Fed Is Cornered By Stagflation After Jobs Collapse | Weekly Roundup
This week, we discuss all the growing list of weaker labor market data after August NFP showed just 22K jobs added. We also debate whether the Fed will have room to cut 50bps in September while stagflation rears its head, the potential implications if tariffs are overturned, and ... Show More
42m 7s
Jan 2025
Fed Holds Rates Steady, Pausing for Further Inflation Progress
Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey and Nate Thooft, CIO at Manulife Investment Management, discuss Federal Reserve officials holding interest rates steady, pausing to assess the ... Show More
9m 29s
Sep 2025
Economic Reacceleration or Growth Scare? | Weekly Roundup
This week, we discuss the biggest risks to the economy, whether Mag7 is a bubble, surprisingly strong consumer data, the increasingly noisy housing and labor markets, risks around Fed policy and dollar liquidity, and why gold has been a cleaner macro hedge than Bitcoin. Enjoy! — ... Show More
1h 7m
Jul 2023
Late Cycle Bond Trades | Mark Cabana on Mild Recession Case and Treasury Market Supply
Mark Cabana, head of US Rates Strategy at BofA Global Research, joins Forward Guidance to share insights on today’s very strange bond market. Cabana, a former officer at the Markets Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, explains his bullish case for the 10-year U.S. Trea ... Show More
56m 14s
Apr 2025
US Assets Are Dead Money Without A Policy Shift | Weekly Roundup
This week, we discuss Powell’s hawkish speech, how to think about trading tariffs and the weaponization of the US account deficit, and whether we should expect a significant growth slowdown. We also delve into rate cuts & the yield curve, why Bitcoin is the trade after the trade, ... Show More
53m 24s
Apr 2024
The Great Liquidity Debate | Michael Howell & George Robertson on Monetary vs. Fiscal Flows And What Is Truly Driving This Bull Market
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital and George Robertson of The Monetary Fronteir hav ... Show More
1h 34m
Feb 2025
Fed Minutes Signal Officials on Hold Until Inflation Improves
Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent Michael McKee reports on Federal Reserve officials expressing their readiness to hold interest rates steady amid stubborn inflation and economic policy ... Show More
1h 2m
Aug 2025
178. Emergency Episode: Is This The End of the Federal Reserve?
Send a textIn this emergency episode of The Skinny on Wall Street, Kristen and Jen dive into the breaking news that President Trump has moved to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over accusations of mortgage fraud. Using this moment as a springboard, they break down the fun ... Show More
35m 23s
Sep 2023
Wave of U.S. Treasury Issuance Puts Pressure On Bond Market | Prometheus Macro
On todays episode, Aahan Menon Founder of Prometheus Research joins the show for a discussion on his current macro outlook looking at the economy, growth, markets & liquidity. With a wave of U.S Treasury issuance on the horizon, Aahan explains why he now sees a perfect opportuni ... Show More
1h 2m