logo
episode-header-image
Apr 2024
13m 5s

Who will move first – the ECB or the Fed...

JULIUS BAER
About this episode

The major US equity indices closed around flat yesterday while small caps outperformed, with the Russell 2000 index gaining 0.5%. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.43%, prompting investors to raise their bets on the Fed cutting rates just twice this year following last week’s jobs data upside surprise. And David Kohl, Chief Economist, provides his outlook for the future interest rate policy paths for the Fed and the ECB.

00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)

00:28 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)

05:54 Outlook for the Fed and ECB by David Kohl (Chief Economist)

11:53 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)


Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favourite podcast player. 

Up next
Yesterday
Geopolitics push oil higher while AI momentum powers US markets
Markets were mixed yesterday, with Middle East tensions driving a sharp rise in oil and weighing on sentiment. European equities edged lower, while all three major US indices reached fresh highs, supported by strong momentum in AI-linked names. Macro data showed a divided backdro ... Show More
11m 6s
Jun 1
Markets boosted by AI as they shrug off the lack of a deal
US equity indices closed the week at new record highs, topping off a winning month as tech stocks once again provided the momentum. Despite no agreement emerging between the US and Iran, and indeed continued strikes over the weekend, many of Asia’s key indices also saw gains this ... Show More
11m 59s
May 30
The View Beyond: Waiting for the gold rally to resume
After a period of relative calm, gold has re-emerged as a focal point for investors amid geopolitics, shifting central bank strategies, and evolving global demand. How should investors interpret gold’s recent volatility, and what does the outlook hold as we move through 2026?In t ... Show More
19m 12s
Recommended Episodes
Sep 2025
The Fed Is Cornered By Stagflation After Jobs Collapse | Weekly Roundup
This week, we discuss all the growing list of weaker labor market data after August NFP showed just 22K jobs added. We also debate whether the Fed will have room to cut 50bps in September while stagflation rears its head, the potential implications if tariffs are overturned, and ... Show More
42m 7s
Aug 2022
This Is What The Fed Will Do | David Woo
On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome David Woo CEO of David Woo Unbound to the show. Recording ahead of Jackson Hole, David shares his outlook on a US recession, Fed policy vs economic growth, whether or not the Fed will be able to slay th ... Show More
56m 29s
Jan 2025
Fed Holds Rates Steady, Pausing for Further Inflation Progress
Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey and Nate Thooft, CIO at Manulife Investment Management, discuss Federal Reserve officials holding interest rates steady, pausing to assess the ... Show More
9m 29s
Sep 2025
Economic Reacceleration or Growth Scare? | Weekly Roundup
This week, we discuss the biggest risks to the economy, whether Mag7 is a bubble, surprisingly strong consumer data, the increasingly noisy housing and labor markets, risks around Fed policy and dollar liquidity, and why gold has been a cleaner macro hedge than Bitcoin. Enjoy! — ... Show More
1h 7m
Jul 2023
Late Cycle Bond Trades | Mark Cabana on Mild Recession Case and Treasury Market Supply
Mark Cabana, head of US Rates Strategy at BofA Global Research, joins Forward Guidance to share insights on today’s very strange bond market. Cabana, a former officer at the Markets Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, explains his bullish case for the 10-year U.S. Trea ... Show More
56m 14s
Apr 2025
US Assets Are Dead Money Without A Policy Shift | Weekly Roundup
This week, we discuss Powell’s hawkish speech, how to think about trading tariffs and the weaponization of the US account deficit, and whether we should expect a significant growth slowdown. We also delve into rate cuts & the yield curve, why Bitcoin is the trade after the trade, ... Show More
53m 24s
Apr 2024
The Great Liquidity Debate | Michael Howell & George Robertson on Monetary vs. Fiscal Flows And What Is Truly Driving This Bull Market
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital and George Robertson of The Monetary Fronteir hav ... Show More
1h 34m
Feb 2025
Fed Minutes Signal Officials on Hold Until Inflation Improves
Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg International Economics and Policy Correspondent Michael McKee reports on Federal Reserve officials expressing their readiness to hold interest rates steady amid stubborn inflation and economic policy ... Show More
1h 2m
Sep 2024
Rate Expectations
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to get inflation under control. One side effect is that taking out a mortgage to buy a home has gotten very expensive. That's especially a problem for some homeowners who managed to get a lower mortgage rate years ago. They have a sort of ... Show More
23m 13s