Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they discuss the challenge of forecasting the AI Supercycle, Stargate and the massive AI supercomputer build out, AI demand overhyped or underhyped, and current market valuations. Enjoy another episode of Bg2.
Timestamps:
(0:00) Intro
(2:49) Demand for Compute Is Virtually Unlimited
(27:53) Everywhere we Look we are building more and bigger Supercomputers
(35:49) The AI Induced Power Gap & The Need for Nuclear
(50:21) Valuations / Market Check
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap https://twitter.com/altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley https://twitter.com/bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://twitter.com/BG2Pod
Shownotes:
What's next for AI agents ft. LangChain's Harrison Chase: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pBBe1pk8hf4
Tesla FSD Model 12: https://twitter.com/bg2pod/status/1769378291658666226?s=46&t=tiuRwY6s_lj81akJSCmJkw Sam Altman: OpenAI, GPT-5, Sora, Board Saga, Elon Musk, Ilya, Power & AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #419: Sam Altman: OpenAI, GPT-5, Sora, Board Saga, Elon Musk, Ilya, Power & AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #419
OpenAI CEO on GPT-4 vs GPT-5 | Sam Altman and Lex Fridman: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJEC0aAjRJE
Jevons Paradox: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
MSFT and OpenAI $100bn supercomputer project: https://twitter.com/theinformation/status/1773798028907811059?s=20
Biden administration on how to generate more electricity to meet massive demand for AI computing: https://twitter.com/axios/status/1774758834952659223?s=20
Nuclear reactors planned and proposed: https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/plans-for-new-reactors-worldwide.aspx
U.S. approves $1.5bn loan to restart Michigan nuclear plant: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/27/business/energy-environment/holtec-palisades-nuclear-plant-loan.html
Josh Wolfe’s talk to Congress: https://twitter.com/wolfejosh/status/1685323817521139712
Our World in Data - cleanest and safest sources of energy: https://ourworldindata.org/safest-sources-of-energy
How Regulation killed Supersonic: https://www.heritage.org/transportation/commentary/its-time-let-supersonic-flight-soar-again
Natural gas is stronger in the U.S.: https://www.iea.org/commentaries/natural-gas-is-now-stronger-than-ever-in-the-united-states-power-sector
Baseload in the U.S. has been flat for many years: https://energytransition.nema.org/baseload-generation/
Amazon goes nuclear: https://www.theregister.com/2024/03/04/amazon_acquires_cumulus_nuclear_datacenter/
I-95 Bridge reopened in 12 days: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-28/resurrection-of-i-95-in-just-two-weeks-is-dubbed-small-miracle?embedded-checkout=true
SF cleaned up in a week: https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/sanfran-s-mean-streets-become-clean-streets-for-biden-xi-and-co-20231116-p5ekd0.html
Texas trumps California as key US energy transition driver:https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/texas-trumps-california-key-us-energy-transition-driver-2023-05-04/
Brad’s tweet on CT scan: https://twitter.com/altcap/status/1774919531414368402?s=20
Americans favor more nuclear energy: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/08/18/growing-share-of-americans-favor-more-nuclear-power/
Producing new nuclear plants have gone down in France and up in the U.S. tweet: https://twitter.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1773221106591166946?s=46&t=832RL3Gm0XtyDEuhy-Gkzg
GenAI company revenue multiples tweet: https://twitter.com/asanwal/status/1772821841578754492?s=46&t=832RL3Gm0XtyDEuhy-Gkzg
Gurley’s tweet on 60x reduction from top model: https://twitter.com/bgurley/status/1774896120310686003?s=20
Congress provides record funding for fusion energy:https://www.fusionindustryassociation.org/congress-provides-record-funding-for-fusion-energy/