A mystery is afoot: in a critical week for the Government's Rwanda policy - with a looming Commons vote in 24 hours - a YouGov poll has emerged which spells Tory election disaster for Rishi.
Look closely and you see that the poll started on December 12th - the same day the Rwanda policy last went through the Commons. Could it be the two are in fact related? In other words, are senior conservatives trying to spell out to Sunak that he must harden up his policy or face wipeout? Or even replacement?
And if so, how should Rishi respond?
We talk to former Levelling Up Minister Sir Simon Clarke, and Conservative Home's Editor Paul Goodman. And with Iowa temperatures down at -28 degrees celsius, will the big winner of the first Republican caucus be... the sofa?
Editor: Tom Hughes
Senior Producer: Gabriel Radus
Producer: Laura FitzPatrick
Social Media Editor: Georgia Foxwell
Video Production: Shane Fennelly & Arvind Badewal
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