logo
episode-header-image
Nov 2023
18m 10s

THIS Will Show You Where Interest Rates ...

Jeff Snider
About this episode

#recession #money #recession2023 #money  #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy 
The mainstream emphasis on Treasury auctions is, like so many of these things, completely misplaced. It's not just misplaced, even the worst Treasury auctions don't actually matter. Interest rates have nothing to do with how much debt the government issues. It's sad, it's not right, but that's the eurodollar world we live in. Uncle Sam has issued almost $20 trillion in debt over the last dozen years, and the long bond yield has barely moved - even with the Fed spiking ST rates.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

FOMC statement May 9, 2010
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20100509a.htm

Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
https://www.eurodollar.university
RealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

Up next
Today
China Has Fallen: Here's What It Means for the World
Something has changed in China. Something big. Bank lending dropped sharply, more than it has. Fixed investment suddenly crashed. Retail sales contracted in a way China hasn't experienced since 2022's lockdowns. The usual economic and financial decay has been taken up a notch, if ... Show More
21m 32s
Aug 23
The Most Important Line Everyone Missed at Jackson Hole
There were several key points from Jay Powell's speech at Jackson Hole which everyone seems to have missed. The market picked up on them, however, with SOFR futures reacting by pushing its inversion deeper and further out, now early 2027. What Chair Powell meant under everything ... Show More
21m 17s
Aug 22
McDonald’s Just Slashed Prices…The Economy is DONE
Jay Powell vs. Ronald McDonald? The FOMC yesterday published the minutes of its July meeting which showed a majority of officials believe inflation is the country's greatest threat. So, it was a huge shock when the world's biggest fast-food joint reported - ON THE SAME DAY - it w ... Show More
20m 15s
Recommended Episodes
Apr 2024
Why the Fed Is Steering Away From Rate Cuts
Yesterday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell called into question whether the Fed will be able to lower interest rates this year as hoped. WSJ’s Nick Timiraos on how the Fed’s outlook on the economy has changed.  Further Reading: - Powell Dials Back Expectations on Rate Cuts  - ... Show More
18m 10s
Jun 2022
The Fed’s big swing at inflation
The Federal Reserve announced its largest interest rate increase since 1994. And it's the equivalent of the US central bank taking a baseball bat to the economy, according to the FT’s US financial commentator Robert Armstrong.   In this week’s episode, Armstrong is helping us to ... Show More
19m 43s
Oct 2022
Mike Wilson: The Problem with the U.S. Dollar
With rates and currency markets experiencing increasing volatility, the state of global U.S. dollar supply has begun to force central bank moves, leaving the question of when and how the Fed may react up for debate. ----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the market. I'm Mi ... Show More
4m 22s
Sep 2022
U.S. Economy: The Fed Continues to Fight Inflation
After another Fed meeting and another historically high rate hike, it’s clear that the Fed is committed to fighting inflation, but how and when will the real economy see the effects? Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter discuss. --- ... Show More
7m 37s
Jun 2022
MM070: Biggest Fed rate hike since 1994. But are they making a mistake?
Yesterday the US Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 0.75% in another hawkish pivot in their on-going quest to tame inflation. They also said they intend to raise interest rates a further 1.75% across their remaining four meetings in 2022 We discuss the market fallout in the ... Show More
37m 7s
Oct 2022
It’s Not Just Inflation, The Fed’s Lost Control | Round Up
The CPI print just came out, and prices are hot. This week's roundup explores the implications of high inflation, what it means for company earnings and what to expect next.Has the Fed lost control? Is this the fault of current or prior regimes? Where are rates headed? Is QE comi ... Show More
1h 3m