As Global Co-head of Portfolio Solutions at AQR Capital Management, Dan Villalon is primarily engaged in helping the firm’s clients address constantly evolving challenges around risk management. Central to these, of course, is the search for efficient sources of diversification. In this context, our discussion explores research his team has done in two primary areas.
First, we talk about defending against drawdowns that are both fast and slow and back-tests that compare options-based hedging with strategies like trend following that do not require explicit premium payments. For rapid market sell-offs, like those that occurred during the GFC and the Covid crash, explicit, premium based insurance works well. This approach can suffer, however, as the market bottoms and recovers even as option prices remain high. Trend following strategies, while not as effective for sudden market plunges, tend to be more effective in offsetting losses that occur during slower drawdowns, as occurred in 2022.
Dan makes the point that a robotic strategy that buys assets that have trended higher and sells those that have trended lower tends to work across asset classes and around the world, at odds with market efficiency. One possible explanation put forth is “under-reaction”. Here, investors respond to good news, but not initially by enough, leaving further gains on the table.
Lastly, we talk about AQR’s recent work on international diversification. Noting that US stocks have been the place to be for 3 decades, the firm sees an important place for international equities going forward given the view that the tailwind of rising relative valuations in the US may be behind. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Dan Villalon.