logo
episode-header-image
Jan 2023
32m 38s

Is The Recession Already Over?

Alfonso Peccatiello & Brent Donnelly
About this episode
On today's episode of "The Macro Trading Floor," Andreas and Alfonso interpret the latest macroeconomic data and prepare for a week of important central bank meetings. They wonder whether the recent bullish movements in nearly every risk asset is a sign that quantitative easing (QE) is back on a global scale (the answer is a firm “no”). After discus ... Show More
Up next
Jun 13
Time For The Fed To Turn Dovish?
Alf and Brent discuss the recent soft CPI print and the state of the US labor market. They highlight the odds of a dovish Fed pivot, and what that might entail for markets. Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-11jun25/ 
32m 59s
May 16
Another $5 Trillion of US Deficits in 10 Years: Now What?
Alf and Brent discuss recent market developments with a focus on the ''big beautiful bill'' that Republicans are trying to pass in the House and Senate. The initial estimate suggest new tax cuts would increase US budget deficits by about $500bn per year for the next decade. Will ... Show More
22m 42s
May 2
Recession Risks & Reflexivity
Alf and Brent discuss the reflexivity bias: now that the S&P500 is rallying again, investors are keen to talk about AI Capex driving indexes higher - where were they when we hit 4,800? Always be aware of your negative and positive biases. The duo also discusses recession odds and ... Show More
36m 18s
Recommended Episodes
May 2022
Is This The U.S Dollar End Game? | Brent Donnelly
Blockworks is proud to present a new podcast with Alfonso Peccatiello, co-host of “The Macro Trading Floor.” Each week on “Boiler Room,” Alf interviews the top names in finance to help you maneuver markets. In the debut episode, Alfonso is joined by Brent Donnelly, president of S ... Show More
33m 27s
Mar 2022
BREAKDOWN: The Market Indicator Flashing ‘Recession’
Why the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted and what it means. This episode is sponsored by Nexo.io, Arculus and FTX US. Since 1955, every U.S. recession has been preceded by the inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, meaning that short-dated notes had higher yields than long ... Show More
16m 14s
Jan 2022
BREAKDOWN: The Macro Battle That Will Shape Crypto Markets This Year
A Fed shift from QE to QT and a political battle over austerity and inflation.This episode is sponsored by Nexo, Abra and FTX US.Last week, the December FOMC meeting minutes revealed that not only was the Fed expecting at least 3 rate hikes in 2022, they were actively considering ... Show More
20m 33s
Nov 2023
George Robertson: The Fed Has No Control, There Will Be No Recession, and Fiscal Supremacy Will Drive Stocks To “Ponzi Stage”
George Robertson joins Forward Guidance to argue that the exceptionally large fiscal stimulus will mean that the economic boom has no end in sight. Once the market realizes there will be no recession, Robertson continues, stocks will soar and the 10-year will rise. Robertson make ... Show More
1h 52m
Oct 2022
It’s Not Just Inflation, The Fed’s Lost Control | Round Up
The CPI print just came out, and prices are hot. This week's roundup explores the implications of high inflation, what it means for company earnings and what to expect next.Has the Fed lost control? Is this the fault of current or prior regimes? Where are rates headed? Is QE comi ... Show More
1h 3m
Mar 2022
BREAKDOWN: How Markets Are Interpreting the Fed’s First Hike Since 2018
Is a 25 basis point hike enough to stem the impact of inflation? This episode is sponsored by Nexo.io, Arculus and FTX US. Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve increased its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2018. This came despite an increasingly volatile economic ... Show More
15m 54s
Nov 2023
The Massive Bond Short | “Recession Denier” Jonny Matthews (ex-Brevan Howard) On The Duration Bubble, Correlation Trades, and Variance Swaps
Jonny Matthews, founder of Super Macro and former portfolio manager at Brevan Howard and managing director at Citi & Saloman Brothers, joins Forward Guidance to share his view on markets and the economy. Having netted a near 100% return in 2022 with a very large short in Treasury ... Show More
1h 22m
Mar 2022
BREAKDOWN: The Fed’s Powell Is Getting More Hawkish as Market Starts Using the ‘R-Word’
Is recession the only way out of inflation? This episode is sponsored by Nexo.io, Arculus and FTX US. On today’s episode, NLW takes a tour of recent macro sentiment, focusing on the shifting tone coming out of the U.S. Federal Reserve. In speeches and interviews this week, Fed Ch ... Show More
16m 34s
Jun 2024
Mid-Year Market Update: Are Things As Good As They Seem?
We’re halfway through the year, and it’s time to take stock. The AI narrative continues to power the equity bull market. Central banks have started to cut interest rates. And the US Presidential election looms large. We debate if things are as good as they look and what risks lie ... Show More
39m 1s