This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking current market events and the outlook going forward with Jeff Kilburg, founder and CEO of KKM Financial.
Topping the news during recording was the blowup in Archegos Capital Management, and the losses possibly to be inflicted upon several of the banks that dealt with that family office. Most notable, says Kilburg, is the broader market’s ability to shrug off these hiccups and continue to move forward. If you’re bullish on banks - and Kilburg is thanks to the steepening in the yield curve - you may be getting an opportunity to buy into some weakness.
Though generally bullish on the economy and stocks, Kilburg believes long-term interest rates (the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.68% at the time of recording) have gotten ahead of themselves. He reminds of the near-$18T of money still invested globally at negative yields, $5T in money market funds earnings essentially nothing, and a Fed seemingly determined not to let long rates rise too much - it might add up to a sub-1.50% 10-year yield before long.
Turning to Bitcoin (BTC-USD), which can no longer be ignored as an important investment class, Kilburg is a bull, noting growing adoption - whether from institutional investors, listed companies putting it on their balance sheets, merchants accepting it for payments, or workers getting paid in the crypto instead of fiat money.
Of the dollar (USDOLLAR), Kilburg says significant further strength might have him reconsidering his bullish view on stocks. For now, the greenback's relatively modest rise from the 90 level earlier this year doesn't have him too concerned.
There's plenty more, including Kilburg's views on volatility, oil, and gold.
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