The start of 2022 has brought a surge in COVID cases, new payroll data, increased geopolitical risks, and shifts from the Fed. Despite these new developments, we think the themes from our 2022 outlook still apply.
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Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together. It's Friday, January 7th at 2:00 p.m. in London.
Right out of the gates, 2022 is greeting us with a surge of COVID cases, a US unemployment rate below 4%, geopolitical risk and new hawkish Fed communication.
Amidst all these issues, the question waiting for investors is whether the thinking of late last year still holds. We think the main themes of our 2022 outlook still apply - solid growth and tighter policy within an accelerated economic cycle. But clearly, there are now a lot more moving parts.
One of those moving parts is the growth outlook. Our 2022 expectation was that global growth remains above trend, aided by a healthy consumer, robust business investment and healing supply chains. But can that still hold given a new, more contagious COVID variant?
For the moment, we think it can. Our economists note that global growth has become less sensitive to each subsequent COVID wave as vaccination rates have risen, treatment options have improved and the appetite for restrictions has declined. Modeling from Morgan Stanley's US Biotechnology team suggests that cases in Europe and the US could peak within 3-6 weeks, meaning most of this year will play out beyond that peak. Having already factored in a winter wave of some form in our original economic forecast, we don't think, for now, the main story has changed.
There are, however, some wrinkles. Because China is pursuing a different zero COVID policy from other countries, its near-term growth may be more impacted than other regions. And the emergence of this variant likely reinforces another prior expectation: that developed market growth actually exceeds emerging market growth in 2022.
A second moving part is a shift by the Federal Reserve. Last January, the market assumed that the first Fed rate hike would be in April of 2024. Last August? The market thought it would be in April of 2023. And today, pricing implies that the first rate hike will be this March.
An update from the minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting, released this week, only further reinforced this idea that the Fed is getting closer and closer to removing support. The Fed discussed raising rates sooner, raising them faster and reducing the amount of securities that they hold.
Indeed, it would seem for the moment that central banks in a lot of countries are increasingly comfortable pushing a more hawkish line until something pushes back. And so far, nothing has. Equity markets are steady, credit spreads are steady and yield curves have steepening over the last month. The opposite of what we would expect if the markets were afraid of a policy mistake.
As such, why should they stop now?
For markets, therefore, our strategy is based on the idea of less central bank support to start the year. Our Foreign Exchange team expects further US dollar appreciation, while our US interest rate strategists think that yields will move higher, especially relative to inflation. We think that combination should be negative for gold but supportive for financial stocks both in the US and around the world.
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