PART 1: Offshore shadow money funds the global economy, but it lies in the shadows; it's off-balance sheet and off-the-regulatory-radar. A good place to get a sense of offshore shadow money is the Treasury International Capital report. Jeff Snider serves as our guide through July's data - and warnings.
PART 2: Interest rate swap spreads are negative. These 'underwater' derivatives indicate very high market demand relative to money dealer supply. So, if bank balance sheet capacity remains constrained--available only at a premium--that means there's not enough 'money' in the world economy.
PART 3: Will 2022-demand be strong enough to absorb 2021-supply surges? A review of the US inventory cycle and how global covid-related restrictions have convinced retailers, wholesalers and producers to surge goods orders. If demand isn't there, they will have over-ordered.
-----SEE EPISODE 108------
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Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL
-----HEAR EPISODE 100----
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----EP. 108 REFERENCES---
Dollar Warning Update From The Islands Which Started It: https://bit.ly/3ESLFhI
PracTICal Remainders and Reminders: https://bit.ly/3kBfpr0
Hey Jay, Maybe Check The Swaps Before Committing to Taper: https://bit.ly/3ET9VjM
(WSJ) Spread on 30-Year Treasury Swaps Turns Positive: https://on.wsj.com/2XNJLxr
All Eyes On Inventory: https://bit.ly/2Wg6ty8
-----------WHO-------------
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins, grand marshal of editorial cartoons. Podcast intro/outro is "Digital Breath" by ELFL from Epidemic Sound.