This week’s Alpha Trader podcast features host Stephen Alpher talking with Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers (co-host Aaron Task is on vacation this week).
Among the topics discussed:
“Goldilocks is a 68-year-old man in a suit,” or how Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole keynote address managed to please both equity and fixed-income investors. Ahead of the talk, a number of Fed speakers made clear they were in favor of beginning the taper sooner, rather than later. Powell pushed back against that hawkishness, while still suggesting that tapering isn’t too far off.
With more gains in August, the S&P 500 (SP500) is now on a seven-month winning streak. Past history suggests markets will be nicely higher in six months, but Sosnick reminds that so much depends on the timing of the streak - this time around it’s occurring at what may be near the beginning of a Fed tightening cycle.
Shorting the VIX at this point in the cycle may be like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller, with upside (of the bet) of a couple of points, but the downside far greater - particularly as we head into what’s typically the seasonally volatile period of September/October.
The potential of blockchain technology (decentralized ledger) may be as great as that of the Internet, but that doesn’t mean the price direction of bitcoin (BTC-USD) has to be a one-way street higher. Similar to Cisco - which had a huge run early in the era, but has underperformed for more than two decades despite its importance for Internet usage - bitcoin’s price could languish even as blockchain technology delivers society-changing products.
Links of interest:
Goldilocks is a 68-year-old man in a suit
Blockchain is to the Internet as Bitcoin is to ?
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices