Mike Mitchell, the king of lumber fintwit, discusses his big bet on GreenFirst. Key topics include how Mike found GreenFirst (back when it was Itasca Capital), how he came to know and trust the management team, why he's so bullish on lumber, and why the thinks the deal to buy Rayonier's lumber assets is such a good one.
Note that GreenFirst is a microcap Canadian company and much riskier than your average stock, so please remember nothing in this podcast is investing advice and to do your own due diligence.
*During the podcast, Mike mentions smoking ribs for Kyle. Kyle has assured me that Mike's ribs are excellent.
Mike's thread on ICLTF: https://twitter.com/ignorenarrative/s...
My GreenFirst background tweets: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:55 GreenFirst overview and background
6:45 Who the heck closes a deal on a Saturday?
7:15 How Mike came to know and trust management
13:35 Mike smokes ribs for Kyle*
17:20 Discussing the various bear cases surrounding the FGF universe
20:45 Comping FGF to some of the early John Malone transactions
22:50 Betting on great management teams
28:00 Lumber fundamentals overview
37:45 Some more discussion on the complexity of lumber prices
41:40 What drove the recent lumber price crash?
44:15 Can ICLTF make money with lumber prices where they are currently?
49:35 If ICLTF is buying assets so cheap, why is Rayonier selling?
56:20 Viewing the rights offering through the bull and bear lens
1:06:15 GreenFirst's new management team (the people who will actually operate the assets)
1:10:25 Comping the assets GreenFirst is buying to other industry deals
1:14:00 What happens if lumber prices and utilization don't improve?