This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with Fari Hamzei, the founder of Hamzei Analytics and Timer Digest's Top Timer for the past three, five, eight, and ten year periods.
Among the topics covered:
Any number of indicators clearly point to stocks in need of at least a modest correction (5%-7%), but the market continues to grind to new records
Hamzei is on the lookout for a catalyst that might give the all-clear signal for an aggressive short. What that might be is uncertain, but Hamzei suggests the Robinhood IPO might make a blowoff top event in the same way the Coinbase IPO marked the peak for bitcoin earlier this year.
Hamzei is playing his current bearishness by being long put spreads on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), but things are uncomfortable. The question he's wrestling with now: Roll the positions forward, or cut bait? Another consideration is the start of earnings season - Hamzei is mulling whether it makes sense to get a little bit long to take advantage of what should be strong results
Task and Alpher mull Tuesday's inflation report which showed a 13-year high for the headline rate (5.4%) and a 30-year high for the core rate (4.5%). The bond market snoozed right through those big prints, with the 10-year Treasury yield remaining near a multi-month low at 1.36%. What gives? Is the bond market discounting an as of yet unforeseen economic slowdown? Or has all price discovery been lost thanks to the Fed's massive monthly asset purchases? Whatever it might be, Alpher reminds that a fast inflation print isn't necessarily a good reason to sell bonds. After all, the previous CPI high came in 2008 amid one of the great deflationary episodes in market history.
Links:
Hamzei Analytics
Bonds snooze, bitcoin slides, gold perky as inflation rises to 30-year high
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