In most decades, there are dramatic events that interrupt the course of history and the last twenty years have seen at least three obvious examples of this. However, more often than not, it is the reaction, in public attitudes and policy, rather than the event itself, that shapes the path taken by society in its aftermath. The horror of 9/11 laid the ground ... Show More
Sep 21
The PCE-CPI Gap and the Outlook for Further Fed Tightening
On balance, I don’t believe that the Federal Reserve should have raised interest rates last week. However, I must confess that there was one reference in Chairman Warsh’s press conference that left me distinctly uneasy. He noted that year-over-year inflation rates, as measured by ... Show More
12m 3s
Sep 14
The Fed Paints itself into a Rate-Hiking Corner
In the Broadway musical, Fiddler on the Roof, Tevye, the well-meaning patriarch of a poor family, has to make some tough choices in a complicated time. Tevye, (who always reminded me of my father-in-law, Bill), has trouble deciding and three times during the play the music comes ... Show More
10m 46s
May 2024
The Economics of Disasters
The Wuhan Coronavirus, the active impeachment of a sitting US president, an earthquake and volcanic eruption in the Philippines, floods in Indonesia, the death of Kobe Bryant, magnitude 7.7 earthquakes in the Caribbean and even my homeland down under has been on fire and then bur ... Show More
13m 42s
Aug 2015
Crash, Contagion or Correction?
Are global financial markets on the edge of a precipice, or have the dramatic falls in China’s markets been contained? After the crash of 2008, President Obama assured the world that secure measures had been put in place to prevent another financial crisis. But markets are fluctu ... Show More
49m 36s