In most decades, there are dramatic events that interrupt the course of history and the last twenty years have seen at least three obvious examples of this. However, more often than not, it is the reaction, in public attitudes and policy, rather than the event itself, that shapes the path taken by society in its aftermath. The horror of 9/11 laid the ground ... Show More
Jul 6
Consumer Sentiment and the Stock Market
Despite very average economic performance, consumer sentiment remains at extraordinarily low levels. While there are many interesting aspects to this phenomenon, one is of particular relevance to investors. As we show on page 32 of the Guide to the Markets, peaks and troughs in c ... Show More
12m 1s
Jun 22
The MOU and Warsh: A Changing Macro Landscape
Last week, as a frothy stock market continued to zigzag across a high plateau, two events occurred with significant implications for the macroeconomic outlook. First, the President signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, potentially bringing the Iran war to a close. Secon ... Show More
10m 31s
May 2024
The Economics of Disasters
The Wuhan Coronavirus, the active impeachment of a sitting US president, an earthquake and volcanic eruption in the Philippines, floods in Indonesia, the death of Kobe Bryant, magnitude 7.7 earthquakes in the Caribbean and even my homeland down under has been on fire and then bur ... Show More
13m 42s
Aug 2015
Crash, Contagion or Correction?
Are global financial markets on the edge of a precipice, or have the dramatic falls in China’s markets been contained? After the crash of 2008, President Obama assured the world that secure measures had been put in place to prevent another financial crisis. But markets are fluctu ... Show More
49m 36s